Treasuries gained sharply in the first quarter, and the middle of the curve is now solidly inverted. Nonetheless, we do not feel this is a harbinger of recession, and we expect the support from global central banks and a reemergence of growth will be supportive for credit in the short-intermediate term.
The first quarter saw a healthy snap-back rally, aided by a dovish pivot from the Fed, but slower growth looks likely going forward. Despite some green shoots, we are monitoring a few economic headwinds that may impact the pace of expansion.
After a tumultuous end to 2018, the stock market rebounded nicely in the first quarter. Going forward, we expect the economy to continue its slow growth trajectory, and we won’t be surprised by increased volatility as we expect investors to vacillate in their collective assessment of both the economic and political landscape.
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